Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019.
Our universe of analysis includes 50 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies. Please see Appendix A for the complete list.
The performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past month was good, with only 44 out of the 50 cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is on the rise and is currently trading slightly above $8700 at the time of writing.
Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 is down 3.97% from 30 days ago and closed last Friday at $2826.06.
Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies.
Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019. Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment.
The best performer overall over the past month was Chainlink (LINK), with a total return of 158.14%. Chainlink aims to be a reliable decentralized data oracle that provides data inputs for smart contracts.
The second and third best performing cryptocurrencies were Bitcoin SV (BSV) and Ether (ETH), with total returns of 73.03% and 59.78% respectively.
Reputation (REP) was the worst performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 8.69%. Augur is a decentralized oracle and peer-to-peer protocol for prediction markets. Reputation is the cryptocurrency used by reporters during market dispute phases of Augur.
The second and third worst performing cryptocurrencies were Basic Attention Token (BAT) and USD Coin (USDC) with total losses of 7.29% and 4.40% respectively.
Figure 2a. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each of the five cryptocurrencies with the highest total returns from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.
Figure 2b. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each of the five cryptocurrencies with the lowest total returns from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.
Figure 3 plots daily candlesticks of the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. We also present the daily candlesticks of the price of Chainlink (LINK), the best performer of the past month. In addition, the following commonly used technical analysis indicators are shown:
Simple moving averages (SMA) with periods of 50, 100, and 200 days
Relative strength index (RSI) with a period of 14 days
Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) with a fast EMA period of 12 days, slow EMA period of 26 days, and a signal period of 9 days
The indicators for all three cryptocurrencies share many common features.
First, the 50-day simple moving average continues to stay above the 100-day moving average, a continuation of a long-term bullish signal.
The RSI values of all three cryptocurrencies crossed below the 70 overbought threshold from above; a bearish signal that potentially indicates the end of upwards momentum.
Furthermore, for all three cryptocurrencies, the MACD line is about to cross, or has just crossed below MACD signal line approximately a week ago. This is known as a bearish crossover and can also be interpreted as a bearish signal.
Figure 3a. Price of Bitcoin (BTC) in USD at Bitstamp from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019.
Figure 3b. Price of Ether (ETH) in USD at Bitstamp from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019.
Figure 3c. Price of Chainlink (LINK) in USDT at Binance from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019.
APPENDIX A: Cryptocurrencies
Below is a complete list of all cryptocurrencies examined in this market report. In addition, we present the mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each cryptocurrency from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.
APPENDIX B: Methodology
The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from April 27, 2019 to May 26, 2019 was used for our calculations.
The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data. The only exception is Siacoin (SC), where we used the Yahoo Finance price instead due to data quality issues at the time of writing.
Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index was obtained from Yahoo Finance. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.
In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.
APPENDIX C: Terminology
Volatility: A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
Sharpe ratio: A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
Coinscious Inc. builds artificial intelligence and data-driven insights for the cryptocurrency market. Coinscious delivers compelling, informative analytics to the cryptocurrency community and uncovers hidden insights and patterns from the data behind the scenes. Coinscious is focused on helping the cryptocurrency community make informed judgements through its services.
Coinscious was established in 2018 and in Canada, Europe and China. Coinscious uses sophisticated financial engineering and quantitative technologies, such as statistical modeling, machine learning, market structure, and risk management techniques, in order to facilitate the maturation of the cryptocurrency market through various tools and data services.